Measuring Forecast Accuracy
How Do We Measure Forecast Accuracy?
Measures of Forecast Accuracy
Mean Forecast Error (MFE)
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Tracking Signal
Other Measures
- The Rockaway Beach, OR forecast has been added to your forecast favorite locations at the top menu bar.
- Coastal Waters Forecast for Washington. NW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 ft at 8 seconds. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft.
- Get the forecast for today, tonight & tomorrow's weather for Bridgetown, Saint Michael, Barbados. Hi/Low, RealFeel®, precip, radar, & everything you need to be ready for the day, commute,.
Find the most current and reliable 7 day weather forecasts, storm alerts, reports and information for city with The Weather Network.
How Do We Measure Forecast Accuracy?
- Used to measure:
- Forecast model bias
- Absolute size of the forecast errors
- Can be used to:
- Compare alternative forecasting models
- Identify forecast models that need adjustment (management by exception)
Measures of Forecast Accuracy
Error = Actual demand – Forecast
OR
et = At – Ft
h2. Mean Forecast Error (MFE)
For n time periods where we have actual demand and forecast values:
How Do We Measure Forecast Accuracy?
- Used to measure:
- Forecast model bias
- Absolute size of the forecast errors
- Can be used to:
- Compare alternative forecasting models
- Identify forecast models that need adjustment (management by exception)
Measures of Forecast Accuracy
Error = Actual demand – Forecast
OR
et = At – Ft
h2. Mean Forecast Error (MFE)
For n time periods where we have actual demand and forecast values:
Ideal value = 0;
MFE > 0, model tends to under-forecast
MFE < 0, model tends to over-forecast
h2. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Airmagic 1 0 0 7094 download free.
For n time periods where we have actual demand and forecast values:
While MFE is a measure of forecast model bias, MAD indicates the absolute size of the errors
Example
Period | Demand | Forecast | Error | Absolute Error |
---|---|---|---|---|
3 | 11 | 13.5 | -2.5 | 2.5 |
4 | 9 | 13 | -4.0 | 4.0 |
5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0 |
6 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 1.5 |
7 | 14 | 9 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
8 | 12 | 11 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
n = 6 observations | Period | Demand | Forecast | Error | Absolute Error |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | 11 | 13.5 | -2.5 | 2.5 | |
4 | 9 | 13 | -4.0 | 4.0 | |
5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.0 | |
6 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 1.5 | |
7 | 14 | 9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |
8 | 12 | 11 | |||
-2 | 14 |
MFE = -2/6 = -0.33
MAD = 14/6 = 2.33
Conclusion: Model tends to slightly over-forecast, with an average absolute error of 2.33 units.
h2. Tracking Signal
Config plist editor. Used to pinpoint forecasting models that need adjustment
Rule of Thumb:
As long as the tracking signal is between –4 and 4, assume the model is working correctly
h2. Other Measures
- CATEGORIES:
- Forecasting,
Overcast.
Feels Like: 7 °C
Forecast: 14 / 9 °C
Wind: 22 km/h ↑ from East
Location: | Logan International Airport |
---|---|
Current Time: | 26 Oct 2020, 07:54:07 |
Latest Report: | 26 Oct 2020, 06:54 |
Visibility: | 16 km |
Pressure | 1026 mbar |
Humidity: | 66% |
Dew Point: | 4 °C |
Boston Extended Forecast with high and low temperatures
2 Week Extended Forecast in Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Forecast Bar 2 8 20
Scroll right to see moreForecast Bar 2 8 24
Conditions | Comfort | Precipitation | Sun | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Day | Temperature | Weather | Feels Like | Wind | Humidity | Chance | Amount | UV | Sunrise | Sunset | |
Mon 26 Oct | 14 / 9 °C | Sprinkles late. Overcast. | 12 °C | 13 km/h | ↑ | 80% | 56% | 0.3 mm | 0(Low) | 07:10 | 17:44 |
Tue 27 Oct | 14 / 8 °C | Sprinkles late. High level clouds. | 10 °C | 17 km/h | ↑ | 50% | 52% | 0.1 mm | 0(Low) | 07:12 | 17:43 |
Wed 28 Oct | 12 / 6 °C | Sprinkles. a mixture of sun and clouds. | 10 °C | 15 km/h | ↑ | 57% | 64% | 1.1 mm | 0(Low) | 07:13 | 17:42 |
Thu 29 Oct | 14 / 9 °C | Rain late. Overcast. | 12 °C | 11 km/h | ↑ | 59% | 96% | 16.6 mm | 0(Low) | 07:14 | 17:40 |
Fri 30 Oct | 10 / 2 °C | Rain. Overcast. | -1 °C | 24 km/h | ↑ | 56% | 87% | 13.8 mm | 0(Low) | 07:15 | 17:39 |
Sat 31 Oct | 7 / 0 °C | More sun than clouds. | 5 °C | 6 km/h | ↑ | 42% | 2% | - | 3(Moderate) | 07:16 | 17:38 |
Sun 1 Nov | 13 / 5 °C | Light showers. Increasing cloudiness. | 11 °C | 20 km/h | ↑ | 72% | 61% | 4.8 mm | 0(Low) | 06:18 | 16:36 |
Mon 2 Nov | 12 / 5 °C | Clearing skies. | 6 °C | 25 km/h | ↑ | 46% | 56% | 1.5 mm | 3(Moderate) | 06:19 | 16:35 |
Tue 3 Nov | 13 / 5 °C | Mostly cloudy. | 11 °C | 16 km/h | ↑ | 48% | 6% | - | 0(Low) | 06:20 | 16:34 |
Wed 4 Nov | 15 / 10 °C | Mostly sunny. | 13 °C | 9 km/h | ↑ | 62% | 6% | - | 3(Moderate) | 06:21 | 16:33 |
Thu 5 Nov | 14 / 11 °C | Overcast. | 14 °C | 10 km/h | ↑ | 73% | 40% | 0.5 mm | 0(Low) | 06:23 | 16:31 |
Fri 6 Nov | 16 / 12 °C | Mostly cloudy. | 14 °C | 20 km/h | ↑ | 58% | 5% | - | 0(Low) | 06:24 | 16:30 |
Sat 7 Nov | 12 / 6 °C | Sprinkles early. Morning clouds. | 5 °C | 21 km/h | ↑ | 36% | 47% | 1.3 mm | 0(Low) | 06:25 | 16:29 |
Sun 8 Nov | 10 / 6 °C | Sunny. | 7 °C | 17 km/h | ↑ | 37% | 5% | - | 3(Moderate) | 06:26 | 16:28 |
Mon 9 Nov | 10 / 6 °C | Sunny. | 9 °C | 7 km/h | ↑ | 38% | 3% | - | 3(Moderate) | 06:28 | 16:27 |
* Updated Monday, 26 October 2020 05:22:39 Boston time - Weather by CustomWeather, © 2020 |